Mathematical Modeling Framework for Comparison of Vaccination Strategies for Different Diseases

Abstract

Whether a vaccination program is funded by the health care system is an important and complex decision. The costs of purchasing and administering vaccines must be put in contrast with the population's higher immune competence, the corresponding improved public health, and the related savings from a payer's perspective due to the reduced burden of the disease. While the decision on whether one vaccination program should be funded by the system is already complex and multifaceted, it becomes particularly challenging when a decision for individual programs must be made at the expense of others due to financial constraints. Questions such as "Should the budget of €X million be used to promote the vaccination program against disease A or disease B?"have massive impact but often must be answered with little basis for decision making. In this paper, we present EpiVacc, the first epidemiological modeling framework for the comparative assessment of vaccination programs. The framework stands out by solving the major challenges associated with the research question with a slim hybrid model structure and, although greatly simplified in many aspects, can be seen as a good compromise between validity and usability. In a study conducted for the Austrian Ministry of Health in 2024, it successfully allowed us to examine and compare 15 different vaccination programs against 12 different pathogens.