European circular economy strategy analysis of steel, aluminium and copper scrap flows between the EU-28 and the world

Abstract

In 2014 the European Commission implemented the European Circular Economy Package to promote a shift of Europe¿s economy towards a circular economic system. In order to successfully achieve this change, a well founded knowledge about the availability of resources, the flow of substances and the markets of recovered raw materials gained by recycling has to be obtained. Within the course of this thesis, questions arising related to international trade and domestic market for steel, aluminium and copper scrap are discussed. Therefore, the export and import flows and specific prices from the metals between the EU-28 and the world from the year 2000 to 2014 are examined. Additionally, the structure of the traded quantities and relations between different variables as well as possible tendencies are explained by statistical methods and analysis of time series. Moreover, the issue of Endof- Life Vehicles with unknown whereabouts and their impact on the interior scrap market of the EU is mentioned. Summarizing the outcome of the discussion, export quantities for steel and aluminium scrap follow a positive linear trend, while the underlying function of copper scrap export is polynomial with its vertex in the year 2011. All import quantities behaved similarly but mirrored. A visual analysis of the data series for prices suggest a correlation between import and export figures for all three scrap metals. For steel, as example, this presumption is supported by a linear regression. Besides, the specific import prices are almost over the whole observed time range significantly higher than the import levels. This alteration was assumed to be triggered by different composition of material flows, and for steel scrap the evidence is provided. Furthermore, following recommendations for the legislative body of the EU are expressed. First, the recycling industry shall be pushed to ensure not only high recycling rates, but also the sorted disposal of scrap according to their special attributes shall be promoted. Second, the possible impact of an interior oversupply of scrap within the Single Market upon domestic prices has to be considered. Hence, imposing tariffs on scrap exports or subsidizing the secondary raw metal production industry offer possible regulative measures. Furthermore, directives addressed to the problems related to the unknown whereabouts of End-of-Live Vehicles have to be adjusted accordingly, as there is still a substantial loss experienced by the interior scrap market of the EU-28.