Haas, R., Sayer, M., Ajanovic, A., & Auer, H. (2022). Technological learning: Lessons learned on energy technologies. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment. https://doi.org/10.1002/wene.463
E370-03 - Forschungsbereich Energiewirtschaft und Energieeffizienz
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Journal:
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment
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ISSN:
2041-8396
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Date (published):
2022
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Number of Pages:
20
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Publisher:
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Peer reviewed:
Yes
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Keywords:
energy technologies; learning rates; technological learning
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Abstract:
The concept of technological learning is a method to anticipate the future development of the costs of technologies. It has been discussed since the 1930s as a tool for determining manufacturing cost reductions, starting in an airplane manufacturing plant, by means of learning curves and has been widely used since the 2000s in energy models to endogenize technological change. In this paper, the theoretical concept of technological learning based on energy technologies is analyzed based on examples from the literature. The main low-carbon power generation technologies, photovoltaics, concentrated solar power, wind and nuclear energy were analyzed, showing different cost trends. Additionally, the impact of policy support on technological learning was discussed in concrete examples of bioethanol and heat pumps. We find that the homogeneity and the modularity of a technology are essential for high learning rates. A good proof is the manufacturing cost development of photovoltaics in recent decades, where a rather stable learning rate of 20% has been identified. On the contrary, nuclear power did not evolve into a homogeneous technology due to required environmental adaptations caused by accidents and the lack of standardization and application of new engineering approaches. In that case, the overall price further increased. Finally, another important condition is stable legal and regulatory conditions regarding the implementation.
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Project title:
Forschungsprojekt zur Technologiebewertung historisch und Szenarien 2030/2050 im Rahmen des Förderschwerpunkts "Energy Transition 2050" (Klima- und Energiefonds)
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Research Areas:
Climate Neutral, Renewable and Conventional Energy Supply Systems: 100%