Validation and Quantification of Possible Model Extensions for a Railway Operations Model Using Delay Data Disaggregation

Abstract

In simulation of railway traffic, it is crucial to incorporate realistic delays. Delay data can be obtained from historical records containing scheduled and actual times of trains. Labelled or unlabelled with delay causes, these data do not consistently indicate whether a delay is secondary (e.g., caused by another delayed train) or primary (i.e., caused by external or unknown events) for a specific simulation application due to missing, inconsistent, and biased data. In a realistic simulation, only primary delays should be injected, whereas secondary delays emerge from the simulated dynamics. The authors developed an approach to differentiate between primary and secondary delays that is flexible in regard to simulated resources, performing a network analysis and using different thresholds for blocking trains. Finally, the disaggregated primary delays were inserted into a simulation model, showing that it can reproduce the actual total delays with reasonable errors.